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Stock Market Analysis And Investment Suggestion Of Textile And Garment Industry

2011/4/28 17:05:00 86

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Textile And Apparel Net Profit Raising Ability

Estimate

Textile and clothing

Industry key companies in the first quarter of 2011

Net profit

It has maintained a relatively rapid growth, but the growth rate has slowed down.

We forecast the first quarter results of the key companies covered by the company in 2011, and 70% of the company's net profit grew by more than 30%. The net profit growth of the key companies is estimated to be about 33% year-on-year, which is 5 percentage points lower than that of the 2010 annual report.

From the perspective of the operation of the industry, the export volume of textiles and clothing in 2011 was 48 billion 600 million US dollars, up 24% from the same period last year. In March, the export growth rate returned to a high growth rate and exceeded the market expectation. In terms of domestic sales, the number of garments, shoes and hats, needles and textiles increased by 22% compared with the same period in 2011, compared with the 10 growth rate of 29.7% in the same period of 2011. The growth rate of clothing in March is expected to increase in March, due to the effect of the Spring Festival, the number of garments and shoes and clothing and textiles in the 1-3 months of 2011 has increased 22%.

　　我们预计，纺织服装行业重点公司2011年一季报业绩情况如下:（1）增速超过50％的有:美邦服饰（002269）（002269，EPS为0.16元，增速950％，由于美邦在2010Q1业绩特别低，同比增速不具有参考意义）、嘉麟杰（002486）（002486，EPS为0.06元，增速90％）、搜于特（002503）（002503，EPS为0.19元，增速60％）；探路者（300005）（300005，EPS为0.13元，增速65％）、富安娜（002327，EPS为0.43元，增速60％）、梦洁家纺（002397，EPS为0.24元，增速55％）；（2）增速在40-50％之间的有:罗莱家纺（002293，EPS为0.51元，增速45％）、报喜鸟（002154）（002154，EPS为0.10元，增速40％）、森马服饰（002563）（002563，EPS为0.34元，增速40％）、华斯股份（002494）（002494，EPS为0.10元，增速40％）、华孚色纺（002042）（002042，EPS为0.38元，增速40％）；（3）增速在30-40％之间的有:七匹狼（002029）（002029，EPS为0.43，

Growth rate 30%), Hinur (002485) (002485, EPS 0.17 yuan, growth rate 30%), Saturday (002291) (002291, EPS 0.11 yuan, 30% growth), Shanghai Jahwa (600315) (600315, EPS is 600315 yuan, growth rate is slower than the same year); (growth) between 20-30%: (A) (A, EPS is yuan yuan, growth rate), Weixing share (()) (EPS, EPS growth rate).

Investment advice: cost pressures force clothing and home textile products to raise prices.

Ability to raise prices

Strong, stable customer service men's clothing and home textiles market.

We expect that with the high operation of CPI in the first half of this year, there will be a crowding out effect of clothing as an alternative consumer goods to consumer goods with rigid demand, such as food and daily necessities.

We believe that the growth of clothing and home textile companies' income in 2010 is more dependent on volume growth, while the increase in 2011 is partly due to price increases.

Therefore, we are more optimistic about the high end men's clothing and home textile market with high price increase, high unit price, and insensitivity to customers.

According to a quarterly report, the performance of home textile companies is generally over expected, mainly due to the price increase of several companies in the fourth quarter of 2010 and the smooth pfer of cost pressure, and the gross margin level has further increased.

We propose to pay attention to men's and home textile companies whose quarterly performance is expected to exceed expectations, including wedding birds, seven wolves, Luo Lai home textiles, fuanna and Meng Jie home textiles.