Investment Comment: It Is Expected That In 2013, The Performance Of Smith Barney Clothing Will Not Improve Significantly.

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＜p＞　　客观上，公司受累于消费疲软以及商业环境、竞争环境的持续恶化:＜a target="_blank" href="//www.sjfzxm.com/"＞服装＜/a＞企业的经营表现及业绩情况基本与经济同步，公司持续受到2011年下半年以来的消费疲软的冲击;商业环境面临成本持续攀升的压力、竞争环境面临国际品牌与电子商务的夹击，经营环境的恶化进一步拖累了业内企业，延长了行业复苏的时间，是拖累公司2012年业绩的客观原因;公司质地优秀，对于品牌营销及产品设计的理解和执行领先于国内同行，但公司自上市以来，战略规划及执行略显激进，直营门店、新品牌建设均给公司带来巨大的人力、组织架构、资金等全方面的挑战，在取得一定效果的同时，决策成本偏高带来了后续的收缩与调整压力，这是公司业绩不理想的主观原因;消费疲软是公司面临的最大挑战，公司需要主动去适应这种变化，

MB will shrink to the previous product line, that is, return to the men's wear, women's wear, children's wear, accessories four major product lines, reduce SKU; MC will revoke the Department's model and return to the product line mode; the future pformation is reflected in the upgrading of the terminal image; in 2013, the total number of stores remains in the existing scale, fully embodies the company's experience and innovation in the shopping experience; the above adjustment idea is difficult to complete in the short term, and it is difficult to achieve short-term results; the company's 2013 business strategy is still dominated by adjustment, and the extensive slowdown will not contribute to the growth of revenue. Endogenous growth will require the company's long time to pay in return, and it is expected that the company's 2013 profit and loss account will generally extend the trend of the 2012, and the probability of obvious improvement is not great. Whether or not to adapt quickly depends on the direction and strategy of the company. But in 2013, the company's strategic planning was not clear: the company plans to begin to pform from endogenetic expansion to endogenous growth in 2013, according to the two major brands' business strategy in 2013.

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< p > expected 2013-2015 year revenue increased by -0.79%, 5%, 7.31% to 9 billion 434 million yuan, 9 billion 906 million yuan, and 10 billion 630 million yuan respectively. Net profit increased by -9.35%, 10.32%, 11.54% to 770 million yuan, 850 million yuan, 950 million yuan respectively, corresponding to EPS, namely, 950 million yuan, Yuan Yuan, and Yuan Yuan; and maintaining overweight rating: the company will be in deep adjustment stage in 2013, consumption is weak and business environment is not optimistic. These will lengthen the adjustment time, and the company has obvious advantages in product design and direct channel, but the adjustment effect is expected to be short in the short term, and the adjustment of the stock price of the previous company is larger. At present, the corresponding PE of the share price is about ten times, maintaining the company's overweight rating.

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