PTA Industry Chain Sustained Losses In The Middle And The Long Term Are No Longer Against The Fundamentals Of The Sky.

Industrial chain losses are mainly reflected in PTA production and downstream polyester industry.

According to the PX import price of 800 US dollars / ton, PTA production is above 5000 yuan / ton, and the spot price is between 4700 yuan and 4820 yuan per ton, and the loss per ton is at least 200 yuan.

Polyester, according to the PTA spot price of 4750 yuan / ton, polyester chip prices barely maintain breakeven, polyester staple fiber loss per ton of about 100 yuan, polyester filament DTY loss per ton of 50 to 100 yuan, and polyester filament POY per ton loss margin as high as nearly 400 yuan.

Interest rate increases in December were expected to boost the US dollar index.

According to the data released by the US labor department, the number of non farm workers in the United States increased by 271 thousand in October, much better than the 182 thousand expected.

For 5%, a new low since 2008, Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen was more concerned about hourly growth than expected.

With the non-agricultural employment data exceeding expectations, the Fed's interest rate hike in December has greatly increased.

According to the survey data, the market expects that the possibility of raising interest rates by the Federal Reserve in December has soared to 69.8%, which was only 36.6%.

This makes

Breaking through the pre oscillation interval and approaching the US $100 mark again, commodities are generally under pressure.

From time to time, before the December fed meeting, it was expected that the US dollar would remain strong.

The global supply of crude oil is abundant, and there are six successive increases in US stocks.

EIA pointed out in the latest issue of the world energy outlook that OPEC will continue to implement the oil strategy with high output to seize market share. Oil prices will remain at the current level in the medium term; if the situation in the Middle East becomes more stable and the global economic growth rate is lower than expected, then by 2020, international oil prices may remain at 50 US dollars / barrel.

EIA inventory report shows that as of October 28th, the US commercial crude oil inventories were 482 million 800 thousand barrels, which have increased for six consecutive weeks.

Abundant supply and inventory growth are still the main factors to suppress oil prices in the long run.

Besides,

The low stock and low margin of futures warehouse is one of the reasons why PTA has been raised. However, the low inventory of spot enterprises is not caused by consumption, but the result of the enterprises' purchase and sale on demand and therefore can not be the reason for supporting the price.

Futures margin is less due to futures discount, according to the closing price of the main contract in November 10th, PTA futures price on the spot price of 50 - 100 yuan / ton.

More importantly, the loss of polyester from the middle of the year reflects the lack of demand to some extent.

To sum up, crude oil is subject to a surge in the US dollar index and ample supply, and the price rebound is highly limited. It is expected that the low position and weak operation pattern will be difficult to change during the year. Therefore, it is difficult for PTA to have a top-down cost driven market.

In addition, the cost support and overhaul of PTA production losses are difficult to change.

On the operation, it is recommended that light duty test run be made between the PTA main contract 1601, 4700 - 4800 yuan / ton, stop loss 4800 - 4820 yuan / ton, and the target level is 4500 - 4550 yuan / ton.