The Textile And Garment Industry Should Take The Margin Of Safety As The Upper Hand.

Industry trends this week: increasing reserves is the turning point or early arrival of cotton prices in a big probability event; in the first half of 2016

The operation is basically stable.

Important company announcements review: Antarctica

In 2016, half yearly performance bulletin increased by 1.56 times; the Xinye textile Dong Gao supervisor increased; the shares of Meng Jin share pfer dream Jin were established as a housekeeper; the performance of Xun Xing shares was 62 million 919 thousand and 300 yuan, an increase of 38.94% over the same period last year; Weixing share performance bulletin, net profit increased by 17.86% over the same period last year.

It is worth noting that the price of cotton in the upper reaches is likely to remain unchanged, as we have previously judged that the increase in cotton prices is not driven by supply and demand cotton. Therefore, the news that the reserve wheel has to be delayed for a month (about 600 thousand tons) is more of a psychological impact. It is expected that the volume and average price of the national cotton reserves will drop.

In the early stage of our judgement, the cotton price remained uplink before the new cotton market came into force in November.

If the current storage is extended for one month,

The rising space may be further compressed, and now the rules have not yet been specifically landed. Therefore, we need to wait for a month's trading rules to land before we have more accurate judgement.

But generally speaking, the domestic cotton supply is mainly from the storage cotton at this stage, so the policy is the most affected.

We still recommend Huafu color spinning and other bibcock, and the Matthew effect of the market leader is more obvious when the price of raw materials rises.

Affected by the weather, the retail brands of Chinese newspaper brands are under pressure, so we adjusted this week to Huafu color spinning, Lu Tai A, Jen Sheng group and Luo Lai.

Among them, Jian Sheng group and Luo Lai life are all in a period of adjustment from the performance. First, we reiterate that we are optimistic about the home textile industry in the pition period. From the mature mode abroad, we do not sell many home textiles alone, but are integrated into the household market. Therefore, we see that the growth of home textiles itself is seeking a pformation from home to family. IKEA's offline life hall can effectively enhance the entry rate and residence time of consumers, and then enhance the customer's joint rate and repeat purchase rate through the scenario and overall marketing, which will effectively improve the efficiency of passenger unit price and store operation.

In addition, the first half of Jen Sheng group was mainly affected by Decathlon's big list, and Decathlon orders have been refunded in the second half of this year, and the newly developed customers have guaranteed a 17-18 year growth rate more clearly.

Risk warning: national economic downside risk; exchange rate fluctuation risk; market systemic risk.